AIRPORT–The waters off the coast of St. Maarten are flat, but this smoothness will gradually turn into crashing waves come Wednesday as Hurricane Isaac draws closer to the Leeward Islands chain.
Current information suggests that wind gusts of up to storm force (45 miles per hour) could be experienced in St. Maarten late Thursday into Friday morning.
Watches and warnings for the islands may be issued by today, Tuesday.
The Meteorological Department said in its Isaac Bulletin, issued Monday evening, that sea conditions will begin to deteriorate by Wednesday with waves peaking near eight feet and will further deteriorate Thursday through Friday up to 10 feet or more.
Winds are expected to increase on Wednesday up to 20 knots (25mph) and from Thursday 30 knots (35 mph) with higher gusts.
Models are not indicating excessive rainfall over St. Maarten (about two inches are expected). Occasional showers will move in on Wednesday and as moisture increases through Thursday rainfall activity will increase further.
Due to Isaac being such a small system there are a lot of uncertainties with the forecast. It is likely that as the system draws closer to the islands the track and intensity may change. Therefore, it is important to keep updated and alert, said the Met Office.
Most models are in agreement that the centre of Isaac will move somewhere between Guadeloupe and Martinique. The models vary with the time and place of landfall at this time. The time will depend on whether the forward speed increases or decreases before the arrival. At this time, it is likely to be sometime between Thursday and Friday
Models are not all in agreement in terms of the intensity at which Isaac will reach the islands. However, they are not bringing it to a major (category 3) hurricane. Most are indicating a strong storm or up to category 2 hurricane.
The centre of Isaac was located at 11:00pm Monday near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 46.9 West, moving toward the West near 16mph (26 kilometres per hour). A Westward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through the end of the week. On the forecast track, Isaac should move across the Lesser Antilles and into the Eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday, according to the United States National Hurricane Center.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70mph (110km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected over the next day or two. Weakening is forecast to begin by the middle of the week as Isaac approaches the Lesser Antilles.
Isaac is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20km) from the centre and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 997mb (29.44 inches).
Bron: Daily Herald